Counting Up the Numbers

This is the second of my two prediction posts.  After predicting which way each state will fall in the first post, I will now, mostly for fun, attempt to predict when each state is “called” for one candidate or the other.  A couple of quick notes:

(1)  When certain states are called can serve as massive indicators for how the night will unfold.  If East Coast states like North Carolina and Virginia are called for Romney early, they may give us some cause to believe Romney will make this much closer than some think.  If they drag on, Romney likely hasn’t performed well enough to pull “upsets” in other places.

(2)  On the other hand, keep in mind that each state is separate, and what happens in one state doesn’t affect the vote somewhere else. The time delay (except in Alaska I guess) just isn’t enough to allow voters to “react” to results in other parts of the country.

(3)  This is, as I said, mostly just for fun, done at the suggestion of my roommate.  There’s about a 98% chance that I get this horribly wrong, but on the slim chance that I nail it on the head, we figured it would be interesting to have a point of comparison.

(4)  This exercise is a combination of looking at how close states are, when their polls close, how long they took to be called in 2008, and how long the closest states took to call.  Too bad I didn’t do this in school – actually could have been a great project.

Below is a timeline of the night, based on when polls close in each state.  Please note that the time listed in when the last polling booth in the state closes.  For a state like Florida that covers two time zones, many precincts will close at 7ET, but it is listed under the 8ET group.  Also, it is important to note that when I list a state as being “called” during a certain hour, I mean that state will be called between the current time and the next time listed.  Yes, this is cheating and gives me a bit of leeway.  But it means I think Kentucky, for example, will be called between 7:00 and 7:30pm, not that it will be called right at 7:00.

Finally, states are listed alphabetically in each time category (so it is not, for example, that I think Kentucky will declare before South Carolina – just that they will both declare in the gap between 7:00 and 7:30).  When I list a state as “called,” I adjust the Electoral College tally in the appropriate column.  I know it is a bit jumbled (I didn’t have time to run it through any of my friends with superior Excel skills), but as you track the electoral count, please be sure you’re referencing the middle “States Called” column.  Thankfully (seriously, it was in doubt for a while), my tally came up the same in this post as it did in the last one. 

On to the chart, with an hourly breakdown below! (Highlighted states are states that made an appearance in my previous post, all times are Eastern Standard Time.)

Time (ET)	States Closing	States Called	Obama EC	Romney EC
7:00	Georgia (16)	Kentucky	0	8
	Indiana (11)	South Carolina	0	17 (+9)
	Kentucky (8)	Vermont	3	17
	South Carolina (9)
	Vermont (3)
	Virginia (13)
7:30	North Carolina (15)	Georgia	3	33 (+16)
	Ohio (18)	West Virginia	3	38 (+5)
	West Virginia (5)
8:00	Alabama (9)	Connecticut	10 (+7)	38
	Connecticut (7)	Delaware	13 (+3)	38
	Delaware (3)	Illinois	33 (+20)	38
	Florida (29)	Indiana	33	49 (+11)
	Illinois (20)	Maine	37 (+4)	49
	Maine (4)	Maryland	47 (+10)	49
	Maryland (10)	Massachusetts	58 (+11)	49
	Massachusetts (11)	Mississippi	58	55 (+6)
	Mississippi (6)	Oklahoma	58	62 (+7)
	Missouri (10)	Rhode Island	62 (+4)	62
	New Hampshire (4)	Tennessee	62	73 (+11)
	New Jersey (14)	Washington, DC	65 (+3)	73
	Oklahoma (7)
	Pennsylvania (20)
	Rhode Island (4)
	Tennessee (11)
	Washington, DC (3)
8:30	Arkansas (6)	Alabama	65	82 (+9)
		Arkansas	65	88 (+6)
9:00	Arizona (11)	Kansas	65	94 (+6)
	Colorado (9)	Louisiana	65	102 (+8)
	Kansas (6)	Michigan	81 (+16)	102
	Louisiana (8)	Minnesota	91 (+16)	102
	Michigan (16)	Missouri	91	112 (+10)
	Minnesota (10)	New Hampshire	95 (+4)	112
	Nebraska (5)	New Jersey	109 (+14)	112
	New Mexico (5)	Nebraska	109	117 (+5)
	New York (29)	New Mexico	114 (+5)	117
	South Dakota (3)	New York	143 (+29)	117
	Texas (38)	South Dakota	143	120 (+3)
	Wisconsin (10)	Texas	143	158 (+34)
	Wyoming (3)	Wyoming	143	161 (+3)
10:00	Iowa (6)	Arizona	143	172 (+11)
	Montana (3)	Montana	143	175 (+3)
	Nevada (6)	Nevada	149 (+6)	175
	Utah (6)	North Carolina	149	190 (+15)
		Pennsylvania	169 (+20)	190
		Utah	169	196 (+6)
		Wisconsin	179 (+10)	196
11:00	California (55)	California	234 (+55)	196
	Hawaii (4)	Hawaii	238 (+4)	196
	Idaho (4)	Idaho	238	200 (+4)
	North Dakota (3)	North Dakota	238	203 (+3)
	Oregon (7)	Ohio	256 (+18)	203
	Washington (12)	Oregon	263 (+7)	203
		Washington	275 (+12)	203
12:00		Iowa	281 (+6)	203
1:00am	Alaska (3)	Alaska	281	206 (+3)
		Colorado	290 (+9)	203
		Virginia	303 (+13)	203
After 2:00		Florida	303	235 (+29)

Hourly breakdown!

7:00-7:30PM

As the first states shut up their polling booths, we can only expect the surest of states to call their winners.  So while 6 states will close, only three will declare their winners, giving Romney an early lead.

7:30-8:00PM

Romney’s lead grows as a couple of the early Southeastern states turn in their tallies as well.  Nothing surprising here.  These are the “free resources” in Settlers.

8:00-8:30PM

The rest of the Eastern seaboard states shut down their polling stations. Some bigger states roll in on the Democratic side of the ballot, but a few more solid Republican states come along as well to help Romney maintain his lead.  Most notable here is Indiana – a state that was quite close in 2008 and ended up going for Obama.  Not seen as a competitive state in this election, Indiana turns in its result about 6 hours early than last year.

8:30-9:00PM

Two more solid, southern, Republican states call their elections, Alabama and the formerly competitive Arkansas.  Romney’s lead grows, and we can expect this to be maintained for a reasonable portion of the night.  If you’re still tracking my Settlers of Catan metaphor, you’ve built another town, a couple roads, and you’re doing just fine in the early stages of the game.

9:00PM-10:00PM

Here’s what we’ll learn in this hour: Were the states that the Romney campaign called competitive at the end of the campaign actually competitive?  It is in this hour that I predict the first few of the states I covered in my last post will be “called” one way or the other.  More specifically, I believe Michigan and Minnesota will be called for the President.  If this is not the case, however (even if they are not called at all), then this will be a major indication that the President is in for a long night and the former Governor certainly has some momentum.

Otherwise, it’s a relatively pedestrian hour.  Despite the turning in of these swing states and New York, Romney racks up more points to maintain his lead.

10:00-11:00PM

I think we’ll know by the end of this hour which candidate is going to win the election.  If a state like Pennsylvania is comfortably in Obama’s column, if North Carolina took this long to call, and if Wisconsin and Nevada both swing into Obama’s column this quickly, then the President should feel comfortable (with the West Coast virtually guaranteeing him the 71 electoral votes of California, Washington, and Hawaii).  If some (or all) of these states remain on the fence, then things are much direr for the Obama campaign, and the election will be much closer (as far as the Electoral College is concerned).

I’ll be clear – I still don’t think Obama is ahead in the electoral count at this point. But if he is hovering within 20 or 30 points and around the 165-180 mark, things are looking ok.  Not perfect, and not like it is a sure thing.  But at least ok.  And if not, then Romney has pulled in a state or two, and made another couple closer than predicted, and could be riding a wave towards 270.

11:00-12:00PM

Most of this depends on when Florida is called.  It’s my personal belief that Florida, in classic Florida fashion, is going to take forever.  Still, I think this is the hour that we see President Obama cross the 270 mark, without Florida.  4 hours after polls close in Ohio I think we see a winner.  (Winning Ohio, or Virginia, is like earning the “Longest Road” or “Largest Army” points.)  Oregon won’t be that close.  Washington, California, and Hawaii can be immediately declared.  This combination pushes Obama over the 270 mark with the combination of Wisconsin and Nevada (random points earned through buy victory cards…too much?) having been declared earlier in the evening. 

And if the President isn’t quite there yet, he’ll be missing Ohio or Oregon because they’re taking a while to count votes.  For Romney to prevent this, he almost has to win Ohio (which is why he’s headed there on election day) or hope for a massive turnout in Nevada (not probable, but possible).  Regardless of how it turns out, Ohio is contested and a recount is called for.  Maybe not. But then again, maybe.

12:00AM-1:00AM

After hours of counting votes just to be sure, Iowa slides into Obama’s column.  Again, if it is really close, and if Romney wins Florida, North Carolina, and, let’s say, Virginia and New Hampshire, then there are calls for recounts in Iowa.

1:00AM-2:00AM

Alaska is called immediately, if not before it closes.  Did you know Bristol Palin’s vote counts as 49% of Alaska’s vote?

Colorado and Virginia both could be nail-biters.  Since I think they both eventually fall for Obama, I likewise think it will take a while for this to come out.  And, again, recounts are on the table.  My money is actually on Virginia coming in first here, then Colorado (mostly due to the time difference).

Trying not to sound like a broken record, but if it is 1 in the morning and Obama hasn’t crossed the 270 mark (at least nominally or in projections), then we are in for hours, probably days, or counts and recounts and arguments and loud exchanges.

2:00AM and beyond

Winning Florida is like gaining the “Longest Road” and “Largest Army” cards all at once.  It was pointed out to me that in my first post I made the claim that you can’t win without ore, and likewise you can’t win without Florida.  Except that I then said Obama would win…without Florida.  Touché.

But take a moment to look at this New YorkTimes graphic.  It includes 9 swing states, and if Obama wins Florida, Romney would have to win literally every single other state on that list.  Which is daunting, to say the least.  Without Florida, Romney seems doomed.  With it, Obama can breathe much, much easier.

But in the end I don’t think that matters.  I expect Florida to go long into the night, and for the election to be decided before it matters.  (I thought about trying to configure my numbers so Florida would decide the whole thing, but couldn’t figure out a way to change anything other than VA and NH.  Plus I didn’t want to give any Democrats heart attacks remember 2000.)

If you’re making bets, I think the odds are 2:1 that Florida is the last state called.  4:1 for Colorado, 5:1 for Virginia, and something like 10,000:1 for South Carolina.  But as Kevinsays, “If someone gives you 10,000 to 1 odds on anything, you take it!”

Final thoughts

Look, it’s going to be close.  Potentially a few thousand (or hundred) votes here, and a few thousand votes there - and after doing a prediction two different ways I still think Obama pulls it out.  

My take is this: either way the other party is going to be hurt and feel like they had this election stolen from them by something or someone: voter ID laws, the hurricane, lies, superpacs, etc.

And if Obama does win, I think it will be interesting to see how the Republicans regroup after failing to unseat a sitting president with such a high unemployment rating.  And, though Democrats are finally somewhat unified in their platform, there are still plenty of issues (mostly generational) within the party that need to be worked out in order for them to govern effectively as well.

Once again feel free to leave your comments!