Settling a Nation

Settlers of Catan is a board game.  If you haven’t played it, I highly recommend it.  It’s a shorter version of Monopoly and Risk and involves a bit more strategy and planning, and a bit less luck (it’s a great family game – in fact we played it with my family last Christmas and they liked it so much they took it with them).  In this game you collect resources in order to develop a civilization.  You gain points by building certain things, and the first to 10 points (or in our case 270) wins.   There are five different resources available, each used for different things within the game; some resources are certainly more valuable than others.

Below you will find these five resources correlated with the swing states based on my assertion of how valuable these states are on election day.  There’s plenty of debate to be had about the accuracy of the polls, and to what we may attribute the disconnect between the national and state polls.  A former professor of mine runs a fantastic poll-aggregator blog – you can read his post here about this discrepancy and how he adjusts all his numbers.  Between this site, poll aggregator sites like fivethirtyeight, and other blog sites (Gallup, etc), there’s a decent amount of polling data to sort through. At any rate, all this is to say that this is my judgment and mine alone, and it is not necessarily what I would like to see happen. Nor am I in any way an expert.

For each “swing state” I’ll eventually make a prediction, and predict a time-frame during which I believe that state will be called.  I’ll throw up one more post tonight/tomorrow with a full outline of when polls close and when I think each state will be called. Please feel free to comment here or on Facebook and offer another projection!

Free Resources

At the beginning of each game of Settlers each player places two settlements, thereby receiving two free points and three free resources.  Likewise, there are 36 states (plus the District of Columbia) that can be reasonably and uncontroversially (is this a word? Does it really matter?) divided into either party’s total tally.  Here’s how that shakes out on the political map:

Republican states (22): Alaska, West Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, Idaho

Democratic States (15): Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, DC, New York, New Mexico, Washington, Illinois, California, Hawaii

That brings the Republicans to the starting blocks with 181 electoral votes; Democrats have 184.  On to the race to 270 (with each state’s electoral count in parentheses).

Sheep

Missouri (10)

Minnesota (10)

Oregon (7)

Michigan (16)

Honestly, when has anyone ever played a game of Settlers and said, “There really aren't enough sheep to go around right now.”  That’s right, never.  Sheep are the commodity you invariably have when you don’t need, and end up foolishly trading for when you do need.  Otherwise, no one ever asks about them, they’re easy to come by, and if anyone ever asks about them you’re confused about why they came up.

There is a handful of states that fall into this category.  These are states that have recently received some lip-service from one campaign or the other, or some political talking head.  They say they are in play – but we know better.

Missouri barely falls into this category (and is the closest to not being in this category) because of two factors: (a) it was a couple thousand votes from going blue in 2008, and (b) the Senate race is still polling in McCaskill’s favor.  But at the presidential level, no mistakes should be made – Missouri has moved to the right.

The other three states, seen as lean-Democrat states, are about the same.  Minnesota comes first because, well, simply there’s no reason to even think it is in play.  No candidate has made a stop there, House races are even trending Democrat, and Minnesota has been solidly blue for, well, a while.  It comes above Oregon because, despite a somewhat substantial gap between the President and Governor Romney in the polls, Obama has not consistently polled much above the 50% mark.  He has repeatedly hit that mark (which is a crucial threshold to reach), but not often gone much above it. On the flip side, the Obama campaign has 12 offices in the state; the Romney campaign has zero (yes, you read that correctly).

Michigan is at the bottom of this group simply because it is the most valuable.  Well, that combined with the fact that Romney grew up there, has spent money there, and the whole “auto-industry” debate revolves around Detroit.  But Obama has consistently polled above the 50% mark and the gap has repeatedly been between the 4-8 point range in nearly every poll, well outside the margin of error range.

Most importantly, even if you believe the polling data is skewed, it would take a major skewing that would cause the need for a total reworking of the polling system to have these states so wrong that any of them went the opposite direction.

Prediction: Michigan, Oregon, and Minnesota all go blue; Missouri goes for Romney.  Obama comes up to 217; Romney to 191.

Lumber (aka trees)

Nevada (6)

Pennsylvania (20)

New Hampshire (4)

Lumber and brick are essential resources to get a good start in Settlers.  They help you build roads and towns – building blocks for any nation.  They’re also resources you can easily overlook during the initial phases of the game and suddenly be really hurt (and then your evil little sisters won’t trade with you to help you out and you lose the game before you’ve even had two turns).  Lumber is worth a little less than bricks, however, simply because there are more spots on the board where lumber is available.

There’s an argument to be made for Pennsylvania to be in the previous category.  However, PA has a history of being a swing state, something ridiculous like 13 out of the last 14 elected presidents have won two of OH, PA, and FL, and Romney made a visit there this weekend.  Again, polling data would have to be terribly messed up for this one to swing into Romney’s column, but there are a few more factors at play and votes at stake which drops it into the lumber category.

Nevada and New Hampshire are in this category simply because there are other ways for both candidates to win without having these states.  One of the simplest paths to victory for the President is to win Wisconsin, Ohio, and Nevada (putting him at 271 if you include the states from the sheep category).  So while these states make good building blocks, they aren’t particularly necessary.  (It’s feasible to win a game of Settlers by just stock-piling other resources, trading a lot, using a port, etc….it just isn’t as easy.)  Nevada is first in this category because the gap is growing in the polling (some even assert that Obama's lead is quite large given a chance that 60-70% of those who will vote have already cast their lot); New Hampshire is last because by most accounts it remains dead even.

Prediction:

New Hampshire is the first true toss-up state I face, and in keeping with it’s North Eastern location, and a recent New England University poll that actually probably misses the mark by a bit but has Obama at a 6 point lead, I’m going to slide it, along with PA and NV into Obama’s column.  Obama: 247; Romney 191.

Brick

Iowa (6)

North Carolina (15)

Wisconsin (10)

Here’s where things get tricky.  Brick is, again, vital to starting your game out on the right foot.  And with fewer opportunities to get it, it becomes a bit more valuable than lumber.

That’s how Wisconsin makes the jump into this category.  Look, for the most part, Wisconsin is probably going blue, and it probably isn’t as close as the polls make it seem.  Though Scott Walker made it through the recall election, there’s a general consensus that Wisconsin voters mainly voted against the idea of recalling the governor more than they voted to affirm their support for the Republican.  But the fact that the polls tightened so much for about a month after the first debate, coupled with the fact that Democrats have consistently counted on these ten votes that will not be easy to replace, certainly was a cause for alarm in the Obama camp.

Iowa has been close all along, but most indicators are that early voting has given Obama a lead.  Romney is expected to win Election Day, but by how much remains to be seen.  A couple of contentious House races only add to the fire in this swing state.

Polling seems to indicate that North Carolina has moved back into the toss up category.  This seems a bit premature; NC went blue in 2008 by only 4,000 votes, and given the tide in this election it doesn’t look like it will repeat in that fashion.  Yet the Latino population has grown significantly in the state, and recent polls have put NC well within the margin of error (even with Obama ahead in a few).  Perhaps most importantly, neither candidate has hit that 50% mark in a repeated fashion, so it is certainly still in play (and falls into this category because of how many electoral votes it represents).

Prediction: There’s a reason both candidates are visiting Iowa so much; there’s a reason Obama took a trip this weekend to Wisconsin and not North Carolina.  I don’t think there’s a large margin either way, but I believe Romney carries NC, and if he doesn’t then his path to 270 seems all but shut (another reason it is in this category).  Due to early voting and history, I think both IA and WI end up falling for Obama.  Obama is at 263 with Romney at 206.  (Now will be a good time to note that the time-table in my next post will give a better breakdown of when one candidate or the other will cross 270, rather than this breakdown by section.)

Wheat

Colorado (9)

Virginia (13)

Ohio (18)

There’s an argument to be made that wheat is the most valuable resource in the game.  It is used to build and acquire a wide variety of things in the game, in fact, the widest variety of any resource.  Yet there is also generally a more abundant supply of wheat than there is ore, once again because the opportunities for wheat are greater.

The same can be said for two states in this group, OH and VA.  There’s an argument to be made that they should be in the most important group of states.  But the fact is they simply don’t represent great enough gains to be of the utmost importance.  Both candidates can win without these states (or at least without one of them).  The path gets harder, but not impossible.  The more telling issue in either of these states, especially Virginia, is when it is called.  If both drag on, it is probably a good sign for Obama.  But if Virginia is called for Romney early in the night, then it could mean he’s doing better than expected.

Obviously they are ordered this way due to a combination of electoral votes, time, and money spent by the candidates. These will likely be my three most controversial predictions.  The fact is that they all carry a decent amount of votes, are remarkably close, and have been the center of plenty of attention.  Yet in the last three polls in CO the President has hit that 50% mark, and he has maintained a lead of 2-4 points in OH as well.  Virginia may be the truest “toss-up” in this election.  The bottom line is both camps believe these states will end up on their side, so don’t expect them to be called early in the evening.  (Not to mention VA’s voter ID law that requires you to show an ID by Friday to have your ballot counted.  So if things end up riding on VA and it isn’t clear, we could be in for a long week.)

Prediction:  Like I said, controversial, but I think all these states hold their 2008 positions.   Adding CO, VA, and OH to the Obama column brings my prediction to 303-206.

Ore (aka rocks)

Florida (29)

You can’t win without ore.  In theory I suppose you can, but it requires a lot of creativity, a bit of luck, and a plethora of other resources.

And the bottom line in this election is that Governor Romney cannot win without Florida’s 29 electoral votes.  I mean – he can, but it would require winning OH, VA, CO, NC, IA, and NH – something I simply don’t think his campaign has had the resources to do.

Obviously the path to 270 for the President is not as complicated without Florida.  But a victory there seals his fate.  Oddly neither candidate has spent an inordinate amount of time in the state since the debate there, I suppose because it is a bit out of the way when trying to hit as many states as possible.  But it is truly a toss-up as well, and I am the least confident about my pick here (along with my pick in Virginia).

Interesting side note. If Romney wins FL, OH, NC, and VA, Obama can still win WI, CO, IA, NV, and NH to win the election.  Which makes me far more nervous about my NH pick.

Prediction: Romney is said to have a lead down the “I-4 corridor,” and if that holds then I think the Governor wins Florida.  That brings the final tally to Obama 303 – Romney 235. Interestingly (and unfortunately), this is almost exactly what Public Policy Polling just predicted, except they left Florida and North Carolina up for grabs.

Winner

That’s actually why I did this.  I was tired of most people “making predictions” but not actually predicting which way some states would go.  My prediction is that the current President emerges victorious from this brutal election, though perhaps after a few recounts and lawsuits.

Perhaps what will be most interesting is how the popular vote shakes out.  It’s certainly conceivable (though definitely not probable) that Obama wins the electoral college something like 347-191 (remarkably convincing for this day in politics), yet loses the popular vote.  Think then both sides would come together for electoral reform?

At any rate, feel free to leave your comments.  And stay tuned for a time-table breakdown of when polls will close and when I think each state will be called!

P.S. Go see Pitch Perfect. It's hilarious. Oh and remember, remember...