Many thanks to those who fought their way through all of this. Yesterday Florida was officially called for President Obama, bringing the electoral total to 332-206, and he officially won the popular vote as well.
More importantly, Romney's failure to secure Florida ruins my prediction. Congrats to Professor Josh Putnam at Davidson, whose algorithms perfectly predicted the election. Unfortunately, this final state drops me to 50/51, or an underwhelming 98.04%. When it became official, well I think this is the best approximation of my reaction.
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If you were under a solid,
sound-proof, cable-less, calendar-less rock until just now, there was an
election yesterday. If you were sad
about the fact that I was almost silent on social media during the course of
the evening's event (with the exception of a few likes on Facebook), don’t worry
we’ll find you a support group and there are plenty of others like you. I opted not to live tweet last night, mostly
because I had too much energy and wasn’t really on Twitter at all. Fortunately, however, I kept a running diary. You will note I highlighted states I covered
in my first prediction post. You will also
note my new found frustration with CNN after they caused me to barely miss on some time predictions from my second post.
After a bit of editing and touching up (external links are in grey), here is how last night unfolded.
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5:14PM
On my way home, moved to kick
a pinecone off the sidewalk. Realized
just in time that it was actually a bird all puffed up and, I assume,
frozen. Plus, we don’t have pinecones
here. I don’t know what this means, just
felt like it was an omen.
5:48PM
CNN teases everyone with
their “first exit poll” results, which turns out to just be a brief segment on
what people said was the most important issue to them. Unsurprisingly, 60% said the economy. Coming in 4th on this list was
“which candidate is least likely to continue abusing their campaign email
list”. 7th was “I’m not sure
if Sarah Palin is still in this election or not but I think she’s a maverick.”
6:08PM
CNN drones on about the
demographics in the election, stating “we can’t say much about exit polls until
all polls close, but we’re going to hint at it to fill the next hour anyway.”
6:12PM
Channel switch happens in
time for my dad and I to catch Rachel Maddow glowing on MSNBC about how their
“toss up” electronic map is working perfectly. Already regretting this switch.
6:26PM
First votes in from New
Hampshire! And the tally is…28-14
Obama. He’s up 67-33%. Guess we can go
ahead and call that state with 1% reporting.
Notably, it is hilarious that 42 votes apparently represent 1% of New
Hampshire’s population.
6:31PM
I tried switching to
FoxNews. They were at a commercial. At least I tried. Back to my Chinese food.
6:49PM
Rachel Maddow follows up an
Alex Wagner segment by calling Alex’s “hot topics,” “a bit creepy, but
appropriately named.” Down Rachel; down
girl.
6:55PM
Momentarily flare up when a
ticker on CNN shows Mourdock up in Indiana by a few thousand votes. Only 4% of the vote is in. I’m only a little edgy. Ma! The meatloaf!
Three minutes later, a CNN
field reporter tells Anderson Cooper, “the numbers will be coming in soon. Real
numbers.”
7:00PM
Polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina,
Vermont, and Virginia.
Two of the three states I’ve
projected to close in the next half hour are called (by CNN…which is probably
what I’m going to use as a barometer), Kentucky
and Vermont. Boom and boom. And Virginia comes up at 49 a piece. Ruh-roh! (How is there not a 3 second clip on
youtube of Scooby Doo saying this?)
7:12PM
Indiana is
called for Romney…48 minutes ahead of schedule.
So I’ve missed my first state, though I did call it for the correct
candidate.
7:16PM
Turns out CNN was just
teasing me and had tossed up some other map.
My perfect record is still alive!
7:18PM
For about two minutes, James
Carville argues with Alex Castellanos on CNN while the blonde woman next to them
tries to interject. I’m convinced that
after 30 seconds they kept it up just to continue thwarting this woman’s
attempt at chiming in as an inside joke.
7:24PM
Crash…actually this time. CNN
projects Indiana for Romney and
they have yet to say anything about South Carolina. Looks like I won’t be
getting 100%. Candy Crowley has been
sent to the Romney camp as a sacrifice for their victory feast, likely as CNN’s
plea for forgiveness after she fact-checked Romney during a debate.
7:30PM
Polls close in the critical
states of North Carolina and West
Virginia. Oh and less important is Ohio. So far the count is 19-3 Romney, and despite
having a state wrong, my electoral guess was only off 2.
P.S. Martin someone is in
Cleveland covering a polling station there.
You couldn’t have convinced me to do that for $126 million over 5 years. Boom
LeBron joke!
P.P.S West
Virginia is immediately called for Romney (as I predicted), pushing
the tally to 24-3. This prompts my dad
to say, “I feel like I’m watching a Chiefs game.”
7:35PM
MSNBC calls South Carolina,
as evidently NBC did. Oh and so did
Fox. CNN where you at?
7:41PM
CNN joins the South Carolina club. 33-3. Report in
Virginia labels vote counts as “almost exactly similar” to 2008. I don’t even know what that means.
7:49PM
Good note by CNN contributor
– early exit polls have tightly matched previous polls. Good news for Dems when it comes to the
presidency and senate; good news for Repubs when it comes to holding the House.
8:00PM
Polls close all over the
place: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware,
Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New
Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and
Washington DC
Immediately called: Boom,
boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, boom.
That’s eight booms for the 8 states immediately called for Obama: Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland,
Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and DC.
One more boom for Oklahoma’s
immediate move into Romney’s column. Still out are Georgia, Mississippi, and
Alabama – all states I predicted to be declared for Romney by 9pm – plus a slew
of swing states.
Also of note, Romney is up
about 160,000 in the popular vote with 2% turned in (each candidate around 3
million votes). And the Florida senate
race is projected for the Democrat.
8:07PM
Why is CNN so far behind?
Trying to build suspense? MSNBC has called the three states predicted to go for
Romney I listed above. Come on CNN make
me look good!
8:13PM
CNN calls Georgia (13 minutes too late).
8:23PM
Conspiracy theory #1 on the
night: CNN is holding off on calling some states so they can (a) increase
suspense (needlessly), and (b) announce them all at once in a big sweeping
graphic. Arkansas closes in 7 minutes. I think they’re ready to call Tennessee,
Alabama, and Mississippi, and will announce all those with Arkansas. Is that proof this theory is true? Of course not. But I’ll probably still yell about it.
MSNBC has called all those
states, and FOX has even called New Jersey for Obama (in addition to those
other states). Maybe I picked the wrong network to compare my predictions to.
8:30PM
Only Arkansas closes. But Tennessee is called along with it at the
bottom of the hour. CNN’s projection is
at 73-64. If CNN would pony up and call
Alabama and Mississippi before 9 (and nowhere else) my projection would be spot
on. Not trying to brag too much, but at
that point I would have correctly predicted not five, not six, not seven correct states…boom
Lebron joke #2!
Side note – Maine splits how
they delegate their electoral votes, so there’s still one up in the air based
on how a specific county or two turn out.
Which I didn’t account for in my post (oops), but I still got the timing
of the state (and color) correct.
8:38PM
Text from Will Roberts: “Fact
or fiction? Mittens would have less public support if they knew his real name
was Willard?” I don’t know which part of
that text I enjoyed the most.
8:45PM
Flip back to CNN to find out
they’ve called Alabama. Come on Mississippi!!!!!
8:48PM
John King is a wiz at this
touch screen. Andrew Linville seconds
this assertion.
8:53PM
Evan Carter arrives. My dad
leaves. If this were an NBA trade,
Stephen A Smith would be exhibiting any one of these reactions.
Jokes.
(Not really.)
8:57PM
Evan convinces me to switch
to PBS by telling me they may not have funding after the election if Romney
wins, and adds that they don’t have any advertisements. I switch, only to find a commercial. So I switch back.
9:00PM
After CNN finds it hilarious
to not help my cause/ego, a huge number of closings come in across the country:
Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana,
Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota, Texas,
Wisconsin, Wyoming.
Immediately projected for
Romney: Kansas (I really thought it would be
closer this time!), Louisiana, Nebraska (3 of the 5, more later), North Dakota,
Mississippi (ONE MINUTE TOO LATE), Texas, Wyoming.
For Obama: Michigan (a big one), New
York, and New Jersey (aptly delayed).
9:03PM
Reactions: Every exit poll
has been good news for Obama so far (including Minnesota and Wisconsin this
hour). None of the Romney pick-ups
surprise us, except that North Dakota doesn’t fully close until 11 (so I missed
this, but it being strong Romney is a foregone conclusion). Michigan being called so quickly is really good news for Obama, and is the
first state I covered in my previous posts to be called. If Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico and New
Hampshire come in this hour (they should), I’ll be on par still. I hope.
9:07PM
Wolf Blitzer toys with us
like he’s dangling a small child by its legs (not that I’ve ever done this) by
saying “We’re about to make a major projection!” Ok, I’m not sure an exclamation point is
indicative of Wolf’s tone, but everyone in this room slides to the edge of
their seat. Two second delay and…CNN
projects Republicans to retain control of the House. REALLY WOLF!? IT’S A GOOD
THING I CAN’T SWEAR SINCE MY MOM WILL READ THIS BUT THAT IS RIDICULOUS. I felt like these kids.
9:17PM
CNN shows Florida. Obama is
up 217 votes with 78% reporting. Wow.
9:19PM
CNN shows Philadelphia. Paul (Ream) declares that anyone who has
finished high school and lives within a 100-meter radius of someone else votes
for Obama. That’s why he does so well in
urban areas. Scientific. When pressed, he admitted the radius can be
as much as 107 meters.
Side note – Virginia is
taking forever to turn in, and longer than Florida, so that’s good news if you
took Virginia’s odds.
9:28PM
MSNBC and FOX both move
Pennsylvania into Obama’s column which is a big blow to Romney’s campaign with
OH, VA, and FL all still too close to call.
And FOX, in a surprise move, has even moved Wisconsin into Obama’s
column. Which begs the question, what is
CNN doing? Honestly now I actually think they’re trying to drag it out on
purpose.
9:36PM
Spotted: Simba on the wall in
a high school in New Hampshire.
9:42PM
Evan eats 8 hot tamales at
once and proceeds to spew out 3 nonsense sentences in a row. Including, “yeah he takes the train metro.”
9:43PM
PBS projects Elizabeth Warren
wins the Massachusetts race. Evan does a
big fist pump and falls down.
Just kidding about the second part of that. But I haven’t ruled out a
tumble.
9:46PM
CNN (seriously get it
together) follows up on the Warren projection, but also projects Donnelly (a
Dem) wins over Mourdock in Indiana.
9:52PM
Why won’t they get on the
bandwagon and call Missouri, Minnesota, and New Mexico? Besides that the only
state I would have incorrectly predicted would be New Hampshire, which can wait
if it wants to.
9:55PM
CNN just projected (or I
missed it a bit ago) Obama to win Pennsylvania.
Which makes my electoral prediction look better (and makes the Romney
camp’s assertion that it, and potentially others, was a battleground state look
worse), but comes in about 5 minutes early.
Which is depressing.
9:59PM
Evan calls the Midwest “plain
flyover country” and follows that with “no offense.” Oh, of course, none taken.
Not about my home or family or job or anything like that.
Paul makes things better,
labeling it a “white hole” where things disappear in our country.
10:00PM:
Polls close in – Iowa, Montana, Nevada, and Utah.
CNN immediately calls – Utah for Romney. Rumors circulate that voters first had to answer
a Mormon-related question before their ballot would appear in their voting
booths.
10:04PM:
New Hampshire is called for Romney – only FOUR MINUTES TOO
LATE to meet my prediction. CNN is
killing me.
10:15PM:
One of my sisters sends me a
video of my mom in front of the tv at home.
Paul and Evan and I laughed for a long while. Took me a bit to get up off of the floor. It was like this, only without the great
soundtrack and way more dramatic. And not really like that at all.
10:26PM:
The only thing being
discussed now is Senate stuff or just more projections about what Florida is
going to do.
Iowa’s 3rd
congressional race started reporting results – with 62 of 181 precincts
reporting Boswell is ahead, which is good news for now!
10:33PM
Bathroom break. No more
details necessary.
Also CNN reports that Obama is
carrying 87% of the vote in Milwaukee. Wow.
10:48PM
After spending 8 minutes
outside tossing a frisbee in the street my hands are nearly too cold to
continue typing. On the flip side, tossing under the street-light with the
Capitol and Washington Monument in the background is awesome. Apparently the only thing I missed was a CNN
reporter grossly misstating the results from some Ohio county.
10:48PM
Addition – apparently sometime in the last 15 minutes CNN called Missouri
for Romney too. Guess I did miss
something.
10:49PM
CNN officially projects Minnesota
for Obama and Arizona for Romney. Mostly sighs of relief for both camps (though
as I did detail in my first prediction post, Minnesota was at least on the
Romney radar).
10:51PM
In another huge move, MSNBC
projects Tim Kaine to win the open senate seat in Virginia. Prompting Paul to go on a spree of yelling
“TK FOR VA” over and over. And over.
10:51PM
At the same time I get a text
message with a picture of a Facebook message chain my mother was having with a
friend of mine. In which she drops an
extreme expletive about the election. I pictured her being this angry. Again, took me a while to get up off the floor,
this time because I passed out. (Not actually, maybe I shouldn’t joke about
that.)
11:00PM:
Closing: California, Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington
Incoming: Surprising no one, California, Hawaii, and Washington all
fall into Obama’s column. Romney gets
the consolation prize of Idaho and
Montana. 228 (Obama) to 176
(Romney).
Notably, Oregon, where Obama
is ahead in exit polling, is not called right away. In a huge bop move, CNN calls Montana at 11,
one second later than I needed it to be called to have it in the correct time
slot. But California is just the semi
that t-bones
the Republican campaign driver. It looks close,
and then the West Coast closes.
11:03PM:
Wisconsin is officially called by CNN, as is North
Carolina. Both I predicted in the correct time slot. Having Wisconsin is huge for Obama (and
provides a major sigh of relief to that team), and while losing North Carolina
is a blow, it certainly wasn’t unexpected.
In fact, the fact that it took so long is probably good news.
Again, worth noting, polls
have been almost spot on so far.
--Revision: Turns out I was
actually three minutes late on both of these. Oops. Classic CNN move.
11:04PM:
John King delivers the line
of the night: “Don’t ask me about plan F.” Sadly, this isn’t on youtube. Yet.
11:05PM:
CNN officially projects
Democrats to win the Senate. I don’t have an appropriate joke or comment here
since it would be Mourdock or Akin related…
11:10PM:
CNN gives Iowa
to Obama. This may mean great things for
Boswell in the 3rd District, and it means Obama just needs to tack
on a couple more states – notably one of Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.
11:11PM:
Make a wish!
Obama carriers New Mexico as well. 249-191.
And then Oregon.
11:13PM:
Hilarious video of someone at
the Obama rally in Chicago pumping his arms above his head. Looks like…this guy combined with these guys.
11:14PM:
MSNBC calls Ohio. So does FOX
(despite the commentary).
This prompts Paul to yell, “NINTENDO 64!!!!!!”
11:17PM:
CNN sends Missouri
into Romney’s column. WHY IS IT TAKING
THEM SO LONG TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE.
11:18PM:
Apparently the answer was one
minute. CNN projects OHIO
to go blue – fitting right into my time category, and right into the time frame
in which I predicted we would know. Just sayin’. (PS That means Obama was just
pushed over the 270 mark.)
11:21PM:
Switch to the Daily Show to
see Jon Stewart say we’re in the same place we started 2 years and 3 billion
dollars ago.
11:25PM:
Lots of yelling about where
the Republican Party goes from here.
We’re waiting on Alaska, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and Florida. For those keeping track, those last three were
the three states I predicted to take the longest. The last four are all “swing states” I
predicted. Up to this point I’m 46 for
46. (Keep in mind the District counts here, so there are actually 51 to predict.)
11:43PM:
After watching PBS for a bit,
we turn back to CNN to hear the Romney camp is disputing Ohio. But Obama is ahead in Florida, Colorado, and
he’s even pulled ahead in Virginia.
Looks tough to see a way back now.
Conspiracy theory #2 on the
night: The major networks played it out so that Ohio, after all the talk about
that state and the money spent there, would be the state that pushed the
president over the top. They delayed
states like Nevada and Colorado and Virginia, and then when it looked like
those states may be ready to get in line, they prematurely called Ohio. Not premature enough that there’s a high
likelihood it goes the other way, but there’s still a very small chance, and
they just wanted it to look right.
My conspiracy theories aren’t
nearly as…scintillating…as others.
11:47PM:
Notably, Obama still trails
by 172,000 votes in the national popular vote.
That represents less than 1%, but is interesting to keep track of.
11:49PM:
CNN finally calls Nevada for Obama. I think Colorado could be called too…but
that’s not my job. At any rate that’s 47
for 47, and the last four states on my list are the last four states to be
called.
11:53PM:
Romney pulls back ahead in
Ohio, but John King thinks Obama still pulls in more votes in the northern part
of the state.
12:00AM:
As we turn the page to
Wednesday, conventional wisdom says Obama has won re-election. FOX has Obama across the 270 as well, and all
networks except MSNBC have projected all states but the final 4: Alaska,
Colorado, Virginia, and Florida. These
also happen to be the final 4 states I listed.
(Curiously MSNBC has fallen behind in their calls after being ahead of
everyone the whole night. It’s like that time Lebron led his team to the finals
and then disappeared. BOOM Lebron joke #3!!)
FOX also has Romney up only
220,000 votes or so nationwide.
12:15AM:
Still no concession call, which
is ok. More troubling are the
discussions going on via social media.
What can men do against such reckless hate? Discussions of how this is going to send out
country down the drain and lose the value of the constitution? Does that even make sense? And responses that
are just, as I saw more than once, “oooobaaaaammmmaaaaa.”
Intelligent.
12:23AM:
CNN calls Colorado.
48 of 48 (though I said this would be second to last state called, so I hope
you didn’t take those odds). 290-201.
12:26AM:
CNN projects that Obama will
win the popular vote (he trails right now by 335 more votes). Mostly due to California actually being
counted.
California, by the way, and
the West Coast in general, is (again) basically a big Electoral College slap to the face
of Republicans. Seriously I think they
need to try and take back Nevada or get Oregon so the clock doesn’t hit 10 and
immediately give the Democrats like 100 electoral votes.
12:34AM:
As things slow down, Obama
jumps on top in the popular vote.
12:41AM:
CNN projects Virginia
goes to Obama. Lines were evidently so
long that people were voting until…nowish…and Obama made a big turnaround in
the northern part of the state. Anyway,
I’m 49 for 49, will almost certainly pull Alaska, and then Florida will make me
cry by ending up in Obama’s column. So
close. 303-201.
12:45AM:
A “watershed moment for the
gay rights movement,” gay marriage looks set to pass in all 4 states in which
it was on the ballot, after being on ballots 33 times and failing every single time.
12:50AM:
The phone call has been made.
PS – aren’t you glad I didn’t
live tweet/instagram this whole thing?
12:55AM:
Romney walks out on
stage. Congratulates Obama with his
first line. Polite and supportive crowd
throughout the entire speech.
1:02AM:
They exit stage right.
I want to emphasize something
again. The polls, especially those the last couple of days, were almost all
correct. If you check out the final
tallies on this blog (that aggregates all the polls), you’ll see that the
averages ended up perfectly predicting the electoral result. Duly noted.
*Addition - this morning Slate Magazine recognized my former professor's success as well.
*Addition - this morning Slate Magazine recognized my former professor's success as well.
Also, at this same time, Alaska (shock!) is called for
Romney. 50 of 50, Florida you’re killing
me.
And finally, Romney’s speech
was perfect. Candid, honest, emotional, and caring.
1:22AM
After getting up at 5:45am
this morning, I’m starting to get tired.
I want to see Obama speak, so if he could do that I would appreciate it.
I know Sasha and Malia need to get to bed too, so I think it will just be best
for all of us.
1:32AM
In a shot of Obama HQ on CNN
I spot Davidson classmate Cas Peters.
1:35AM
The Presidential Obama family
walks out on stage.
1:51AM
I will be immediately going
to bed when he wraps this up.
1:58AM
The President wraps up his
speech with a long, extended climax. He
is probably going to sleep for a long time.
Maybe the longest amount of time he’s slept in years. The confetti is so thick I’m actually
struggling to see the stage from some angles.
All the candidates must be
exhausted. I’m exhausted, and all I had
to do was type nonsense for the past few hours.
2:01AM
CNN has yet to call Florida,
meaning I’ve correctly predicted it as the last state to be called and the time
frame in which it would be called. And
though I’m likely going to be asleep before it is called, it looks like I’ll
probably get it wrong.
2:06AM
Great point right after the
speech – his becomes the president to get reelected with the highest
unemployment rate in the country. By a
big margin.
2:08AM
Ok I’m headed to bed. I guess I won’t know about Florida until
tomorrow…but at this point I just don’t care and want to sleep.
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7:23AM
My alarm goes off and for
about .23 seconds I’m upset, but then remember the election.
8:03AM
See over breakfast that
Florida has yet to be called one way or another. There’s still hope for getting
100%. I need to recount this one as well, but I think I also predicted 34 of the 51 states to be called during the correct time period.
8:47AM
The mood is somber in the
office, but we know how hard the Congressman worked and how much he cared, so
mostly we just feel for him. Plus, the
conciliatory emails far outweigh the number of degrading ones.
9:55AM
Already fielded three calls
from other offers offering their heartfelt condolences. That makes it sound like someone died. But importantly, it has been a bipartisan
group of callers.
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I’ll probably update this
whenever Florida is officially called one way or another. In the meantime, though, it’s back to work on
the ‘fiscal cliff.’
